CONVECTIVE FORECAST - UPDATE
VALID Fri 03 Jun 15:00 - Sat 04 Jun 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 03 Jun 15:05 (UTC)
FORECASTER: TUSCHY / GROENEMEIJER

There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across North west Germany, Netherlands and Belgium

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across Denmark,most parts of Germany,Switzerland and eastern France

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to synoptic forecast.

DISCUSSION

...Moderate risk area...
The tip of a wave in the frontal zone, located over southwestern Belgium at 13 UTC will continue its northeastward movement....Latest synop datas show a southerly flow established over most parts of France and Germany. Dewpoints in the range of 11 to 15°C are present in the warm sector. In combination with strong insolation about 500 to 1200J/kg MLCAPE will likely materialize in the next two or three hours. Furthermore, deepening of the low at the wave-tip should establish a broad and intense windfield over the area.... with winds at 850 hPa increasing to around 20 m/s during the late evening. Current thinking is that more linear convective systems will form over central and eastern France and the Benelux ...Main threat seems to be severe wind gusts up to 30m/s and some large hail. Over northwestern Germany, surface winds may back somewhat ahead of the approaching wave increasing SRH values. In combination with strong shear this poses a risk for a few tornadoes, too.

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